Back in the day it became something of a tradition that after election, UKIP would collapse into a cloud of acrimony and in-fighting. And that’s when the party did well. The party would go to war with itself, and emerge with a new leader. Or maybe just Nigel Farage again. But with UKIP now a […]
The Data Election
The Politics / Reality Divide Shaping The Election
Donald Trump is in town for the NATO summit, and most of the newspapers today splashed on his comments yesterday on the NHS: “We want nothing to do with the NHS”, he told reporters. And so began another news cycle that was almost entirely a fantasy. Why? Because he secretly does want to get his […]
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Can Labour Squeeze The LibDems Enough?
The big polling story of this election is how voters are coalescing around two choices: Leave or Remain. The Conservatives have successfully managed to consolidate the vast majority of the Leave vote. Despite the bold ambitions of Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party, most Leavers now appear to have realised that if they want to […]
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Will The London Bridge Attack Affect The 2019 Election?
It’s slightly uncomfortable to ask the question, but it could be an important factor in the election: What about the London Bridge attack? Friday’s incident was potentially the sort of black-swan event that could change the dynamics of the election race – and thus the future direction of our country. So understanding how it might […]
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The First Past The Post Factor
Forecasting British politics is really hard, which makes it incredibly annoying if you’re trying to wager on the outcome. What makes it particularly vexing is the First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system: Instead of trying to predict what a group of 60m people might do, you’re trying to predict the winner of 650 separate […]