We’re almost there. The election is tomorrow. And now YouGov has dropped its final MRP analysis before polls close: This is the same sort of analysis (which isn’t exactly a poll), which correctly predicted the hung Parliament in 2017. And the results are… not good, if you’re a Remainer and a Corbynsceptic, like this author. And perhaps more importantly – it has interesting implications for anyone gambling on the result of not just the election, but how politics may play out shortly after too.
Here’s the numbers:
NEW YouGov MRP
Conservative majority of 28
CON 339 (+22)
LAB 231 (-31)
SNP 41 (+6)
LIB 15 (+3) https://t.co/57PHLcUoOK
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 10, 2019
Before we break down what it means, the crucial thing to remember is that while this is the official prediction, there is quite a lot of variability on either side: YouGov has said that based on its analysis, it cannot rule out a hung Parliament, given how razor-thin some of the margins are, and how First Past The Post distorts the process.
But lets assume the MRP is broadly accurate. What would it mean for Remainers?
First and foremost, it gives the Tories a majority of 28, meaning that the Brexit deal will likely pass, assuming that all of the Tory candidates do as they have pledged and vote for the deal. This would take us out on the 31st January, for anyone betting on that possibility.
Crucially though, because the majority is still relatively meagre, it could have unintended consequences: A large Tory majority would mean that Johnson’s deal will sail through. But just 28? That means that the hardline European Research Group (ERG) Tories, who scuppered Theresa May’s near-identical deal could hold the deciding votes. While it is unlikely they will vote down the deal, it would definitely give them significant leverage to demand a very hard final settlement with the EU in the next stage of the talks that are still to come.
And on the Labour side it could be bad news too for Corbynsceptics. Labour losing 31 seats would be bad, compared to the result in 2017 – but it doesn’t feel as though it would be quite devastating enough to finally force Corbyn to stand down. It wouldn’t be a 1983-sized disaster, it’d be 1987, where the Labour leader continued on despite losing.
So if you’re betting on Jezza standing down on December 13th, perhaps don’t spend your imagined winnings just yet.
And if you’re a Remainer and a Corbynsceptic like this author? Well, this is the worst of both worlds.