PoliticalBets.co.uk was set-up in late 2019 to cover the UK general election. The aim of the website is to cover politics and polling from a data driven angle. Specially, we look at how polls compare to what’s happening in the betting markets.
Most polls in 2016 failed to predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum and Trump’s Presidential win. Nevertheless, people still use polls to make all sorts of predictions about how elections will turn out. Therefore, we felt it would be good to add an extra layer of analysis to this with how the betting markets handle the same information.
In theory, people putting their money where the mouth is or having skin in the game should collectively give at least as accurate a picture on the outcome of an election as polling. However, this has also not always been the case in recent elections. As a result, we’re not claiming to offer anything more accurate than polling just another perspective.
Finally, we should note that while we discuss politics and betting markets we do advocate gambling. Most people who gamble end up losing money therefore if you do choose to gamble you should only do so with money you can afford to lose.