• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
PoliticalBets.co.uk

PoliticalBets.co.uk

2022 Political Betting & Election Odds

Tonight Is Corbyn’s Last Roll Of The Dice

December 6, 2019 Leave a Comment

The election hasn’t seen as many twists and turns as a political junkie might hope. But all of that might change tonight. I mean, it probably won’t, but there’s a chance.

Why? Because tonight is the final debate ahead of the election: A straight head-to-head between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

“Basically Corbyn’s got one last shot,” observed one anonymous Tory staffer yesterday when speaking to Politico, “He has to change the narrative on Friday or he’s done.”

And this is definitely the case. As things currently stand, Labour still lag significantly behind the Conservatives and realistically the best the party party can hope for now is denying Johnson a majority. But the gap in the polls is such that, if things stay as they are, the Tory majority could be very comfortable indeed.

The debate is Corbyn’s last chance for a game-changing moment. If he can be seen to decisively win against his rival, maybe Corbyn could earn the viral momentum required to blunt the Tories. One of the reasons the Liberal Democrats performed so well in 2010 (picking up 62 seats) is partially down to then leader Nick Clegg’s performance in the debates: He was able to present himself as a fresh face, and by most accounts he “won”. Conversely, if he doesn’t do anything to change the dynamic, then he should probably start drafting his resignation speech for the morning of December 13th.

In a sense, it is slightly odd that tomorrow’s debate is happening at all. Leader debates are new to British politics, so the norm has not quite embedded. In 2015 and 2017, we saw politicians shift the format around to suit their interests: In 2015, David Cameron refused to debate Ed Miliband one-on-one, and only took part in a debate with the six other party leaders, to avoid giving Ed equal stature to that of the Prime Minister. In 2017, there were no direct head to head debates between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn – the best the broadcasters could manage were back-to-back interviews.

Crucially, in 2010, the only reason the debates were able to happen at all is because Labour and the Tories were roughly level in the polls – and so it was within the interests of both sides to look for a breakout moment.

And this is why it is so curious that Boris Johnson agreed for two debates up front with Jeremy Corbyn. Johnson has such a commanding poll lead that all the debate does is roll the dice when they do not need to be rolled. The best case scenario for Johnson tomorrow night is that he retains what he already has. And the worst case scenario? He might just debate himself out of office.

Get Latest News Updates By E-mail:

"/>Loading

Filed Under: The Data Election

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Get News Updates By E-mail:

"/>Loading

Offers


  • £300 cashback or an iPad with Spreadex*
  • £10 Welcome bonus from Smarkets*
* Ts & cs apply.

Recent Posts:

Tonight Is Corbyn’s Last Roll Of The Dice

December 6, 2019

The Brexit Party Is Over

December 5, 2019

The Politics / Reality Divide Shaping The Election

December 4, 2019

Can Labour Squeeze The LibDems Enough?

December 3, 2019

Will The London Bridge Attack Affect The 2019 Election?

December 2, 2019

Topics

  • Map (1)
  • The Data Election (23)
  • Uncategorized (1)

Tags

Tactical Voting

Search

Footer

Disclaimer

PolticalBets.co.uk is a data driven politics news, analysis and information website. All content is aimed at those who are eligible to vote in the UK (18+). Part of our analysis involves looking at how betting markets compare to recent polls.

This means we often mention and link to gambling sites. Some of these sites may pay us a commission if you join after clicking. This helps keep this site free. However, we are not endorsing any gambling related activities. Should you choose to gamble please play within your limits.

For more see: The Gambling Commission, Gambling Therapy, GamCare, When The Fun Stops, GamStop, and BeGambleAware.

Recent Posts

  • Where Did The “Didn’t Vote” Party Win?
  • 2019 UK Election Map: The One Where…?
  • New YouGov MRP: The Worst Of Both Worlds For Remainers and CorbynSceptics
  • The Gaffe That Changed The Election?
  • What Will Be Thursday’s Portillo Moment?
  • Tonight Is Corbyn’s Last Roll Of The Dice
  • The Brexit Party Is Over

Search

Tags

Tactical Voting

Copyright © 2025 · About Us · Contact US · Privacy Policy · Terms of Use